Women’s Singles Gold Medal Match

Donna Vekic (CRO) vs Qinwin Zheng (CHN)

Everybody always says “nobody predicted Raducanu to win the US Open the year she did” but actually D Clear did. Now, I actually don’t think one person in the world predicted Zheng vs Vekic in the Olympics on clay at Roland Garros. Vekic was ready to retire a few months ago! Most people, myself included, thought it was a Swiatek route to the final. Zheng however had different plans. She provided a clear struggle for Swiatek and kind of had an anything you can do I can do better attitude. She was going high heavy to Swiatek backhand, defending well, extending points, making Swiatek uncomfortable. She served well and did not let Swiatek attack. In this match she will have to do all of that as Vekic will be trying to be the first to punch every single point, so not letting her get 2nd serve looks, and extending points to hit extra shots is key. No doubt Iga was off but Qinwin took that match from her and said now I am the player to beat. 

Vekic on the other hand has been seeing the ball like an absolute beach ball. Like a hot air balloon. I haven’t really ever seen anything like it. Anytime the ball is there to her forehand- goodnight. She is absolutely crushing the ball and the way she has played her past few matches it doesn’t matter who she is playing because the ball is going by everybody. She came back from 4-1 down in the first set to beat Coco 6 and 2. She almost lost from match points up in a long heater vs Kostyuk, but actually ended up saving match points to win 7-6 in the third. Same thing there, if she wasn’t on defense, the point was over. Lastly, she played Schmiedlova and absolutely throttled her, it was a joke. Her dropshots also have been insane for someone with so much power. Usually players with that much pace don’t have great hands but she has been showing hers off.

If Vekic plays how she did the past few rounds, she will take home Gold. But I do not expect her to be able to do that. She played her four hour match a few days ago then had a light battle vs AKS, and then a day off, so she should be rested and I don’t see that being a major issue. Zheng played long matches and faced death earlier in the tournament so they’re on the same page there. But Zheng can attack and also defend and make her feel uncomfortable. Zheng can play with some variety and not give the ball to Vekic in her pocket every time. If she is getting it there it’ll be tough for the Chinese. Zheng played the Australian Open final so she has some experience in a major final. Vekic just is coming off a tough semi final Wimbledon loss, so will there be scar tissue there if this match gets close? Oh man it’ll be a heater, but it would take an all time effort for Donna to play at that level with this pressure and these stakes. If so, one of the most unreal runs, given the level of play, and unexpectedness, probably since Raducanu.

Men’s Doubles Gold Medal Match

Ram/Krajicek (USA) vs Ebden/Peers (AUS)

We were one match away from an all American final here but Ebden/Peers took out Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz convincingly in the semis.  They are an experienced doubles team with both of them having played major finals, and Ebden having won 3 majors. They are both 36 years old, and Rajeev is 40 years old so I am wondering if this will be the oldest total age in Gold medal match history. They all have mastered the art of doubles, and like most close matches do, I am sure it’ll come down to a point here or point there.

Ram, from Carmel, and Krajicek from Tampa, have had a pretty straight forward route to the final, not having dropped a set. The two former world number 1’s beat the other Aussie team in De Minaur/Popyrin, beat Brazilians Seyboth Wild/Monteiro, beat Nadal/Alcaraz, and then destroyed Pavlesek/Machac. The match vs Alcaraz/Nadal was supposed to be a heater and they came out and took it to them. After that they cemented themselves as the clear favorite to win this tournament. The left handed serve from Krajicek, and both of their hands being world class, are two of the main reasons they’re going to get it done, but also Krajicek is the weapon here. The other three all play classic old school doubles, and Raj is probably the best in the world at that style of play, but Krajicek being lefty gives them a look and a level of discomfort the Aussies can’t. When Raj and Kraj are playing well they’re the best doubles team in the world.

Ebden/Peers also come into the match unscathed, not having dropped a set through their four matches also. Unfortunately the Olympics don’t play a full third set in the final, but unless both teams drop their first set of the tournament, that will not be needed. If it is needed, oh the drama that will provide. It will be like a PK for a gold medal. This is the first meeting between the two teams, since these guys aren’t full time teams on the tour. Maybe after one of them gets gold, they will be. Raj and Kraj have the advantage going in here, but this is no doubt the toughest test either team has faced so far in this tournament. 

Men’s Singles Gold Medal Match

Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN)

The Bronze Medal match. The tightest match in tennis. Win and you get an olympic medal. Lose and you go home with nothing. I used to think if I ever got to a 3rd 4th playoff for a gold ball, no way I could be able to play. In the final at least you know you walk home with something. 3rd 4th is dreams and nightmares.

Felix Auger-Aliassime just won the bronze medal in mixed doubles with Gabriela Dabrowski. So he has at least won a medal and that should relieve some tension, thinking at least he gets to leave here with a medal so win or lose he won an Olympic medal. However, there is a big difference between mixed doubles and singles and the players know that. In big moments, Felix tends to kind of check off the radar. He lost his first 9 ATP finals, and the way he plays is so all or nothing it is hard to find his highest level with the highest stakes. If he can, his game is good enough to beat anybody. Massive serve and massive forehand, and very technically sound. Has had some of his best results on clay, including wins over Medvedev and Ruud this week. He also plays his best for his country helping them win Davis Cup and beat Zverev to win the ATP Cup. So he shows up for his country and plays his best tennis then.

Musetti on the other hand is the safer player. Plays with more margin of error and has every tool in the bag. He will play with all of them too, where as Felix sticks to his guns. Musetti comes in playing really well beating Zverev and Navone this week, and getting to the final of Umag last week. On clay he has more variety and can frustrated his opponent more. In bigger stakes he has a safer game to slice more balls, make Felix hit tough shots. If Felix comes to play and brings his A game, Musetti might be scrambling for answers. But I think Musetti’s safer game in these circumstances will prevail, even though Felix already has a medal in his pocket to go home with.