Men’s matches 

We have some good first round matches, including rematches of 2024 Roland Garros matches, matches involving some of the GOATS, and a few greats on their way out of the sport. Here’s what to pay attention to on day 1.

Alcaraz/Nadal (ESP) vs Gonzalez/Molteni (ARG)

All eyes are on Alcaraz and Rafa this year as it’s Rafa’s last go around at the Olympics and happens to be held at Roland Garros. It’s got to be the hottest ticket in tennis since Fed’s retirement. You got the best player in the world teamed up with the best player ever at Roland Garros and debatably the best player ever. Even though there’s no seed next to their name they are the favorite in Vegas’s eyes. I think they’re juiced a little much but with the excitement around the pairing and how historical it could be I don’t blame them. A slim 26 grand slams and 2 gold medals between the two.

Most people are thinking but that’s in singles and this is doubles. But Nadal won gold in 2016 with Marc Lopez. Yes Marc was a doubles specialist which Carlitos is not, but I’ll take my chances with the best player in the game right now. However, this isn’t the same Rafa we’ve seen in the past. They’re playing 6 seeded Argentine doubles specialists Maximo Gonzalez and Andres Molteni. These guys primarily play together and are both top 15 in the world. This year at RG they lost in the third round to two other singles players Zheng/Machac. So how will they fare against two of the best to ever play the game. I think they’re being underestimated a bit here but playing the Spaniards in Europe and having never been past a slam quarterfinal I’d take the two goats. 

Wawrinka (SUI) vs Kotov (RUS) 

This first round matchup is a rematch of 2nd rd at this year’s RG. Although it was only a 4 set win for Kotov, it was a 3 hour 40 minute classic, and was Kotov’s real introduction to the mainstream tennis world. This match not being able to go that long and only being only 2 out of 3 will benefit the 39 year old Swiss, Waw. He has had success in the past at RG and tends to get the crowd on his side there, especially being from nearby. Expect fireworks in this matchup and plenty of drama as you never know what to expect with Pavel Kotov. You got clean, flashy, shot maker Stan Wawrinka, who can hit a winner from anywhere on the court, vs unorthodox, big hitter, Pavel Kotov.

Stan played this past week in Gstaad but had a disappointing 3 set loss to Klein. Kotov played the past two weeks on clay and finished with a 1-3 record. Neither player are going into this tournament feeling great but not a bad place to catch rhythm for the former champion Stan Wawrinka. This one’s honestly too close to call but if I’d have to pick I’m going with the guy who’s racquet I used to use. 

Tommy Paul (USA) vs Luciano Darderi (ITA)

On a day filled with tons of Americans playing across the board, I picked the one with maybe the worst level of opponent. However, Tommy Paul is the most exciting American player I’ve ever really watched, and probably since Agassi. There’s just nothing he can’t do on a tennis court and it’s why he gives Alcaraz struggles. Serve and volley, sit back and grind, take returns early, move back, slice backhand, flat backhand, rip fories, unbelievably fast. You name it. And best of all the dude just seems to enjoy being out there, never seemingly taking himself too serious. He likes the crowd, shows emotion, but seems to keep it light and fun. The past few years he’s really come into his own, becoming the number 1 ranked American man for about a week or two before Fritz took it back. But he’s got the game to beat anyone and the attitude to bring in fans.

Darderi’s preferred surface is for sure clay, and he’s coming in confident having won matches in Hamburg and Umag. He won 2 challenger titles on clay last year and won Cordoba ATP in February. Tommy is definitely the favorite and should be, but this is no walk in the park for Tommy. He is going to have to show up and be ready to play, because especially in best of 3, anything can happen. 

Prediction: Tommy Paul

Alcaraz (ESP) vs Habib (LEB) 

This one hits home as I grew up playing the same tournaments in the USA as Hady Habib. Hady played 4 years at Texas A&M University and since then has reached a career high of 259 in the ATP rankings. For him, to be in this position is his hard work paying off, and once in a lifetime experience to play a player like Carlitos Alcaraz at RG. I remember my dad told me to enjoy playing Sameer Kumar once and then I lost 0&0. Yeah real fun. But for Hady it’ll be to go enjoy the moment and being in the Olympic Village. The reason this mainly is highlighted is to let people know Alcaraz quest at a singles  gold Medal at just 21 years old has begun, something that Federer and Djokovic never have been able to do during their careers.

At this point in the tournament it’s mainly just him getting his rhythm on the courts. As Lace would say “extra reps”. Conserve energy for doubles and get off the court as time adds up and will make a big difference later in the tournament. He’s the overwhelming favorite going into the tournament, rightfully so, and he will look to get started off with a straight set win vs Hady Habib. 

Prediction: Alcaraz 2-0 (-infinity probably)

Women’s Matches 

It’s hard to pick only a few on the women’s side as this draw is littered with good early matchups. The first round matches are crazy on both days, especially in singles. It was hard to only pick a few but these should provide plenty of quality tennis and drama.

Osaka (JPN) vs Kerber (GER)

2 former grand slam champs square off against each other at two different stages of their career. Osaka is trying to have a resurgence and find her form again while this is Kerber’s curtain call, and will be retiring following the tournament. While it’s been a struggle for both players to find their top form since coming back to the tour, Osaka was damn close to it at Roland Garros this year. She had match points on her serve vs Iga but Iga did Iga things. She was moving better than I’d ever seen her move on a clay court and if she can progress on that in this Olympics she could have a shot to make real noise. I would imagine she’s feeling confident following that result and looks to build on that. Kerber lost first round of RG this year to Rus in straight sets, however she did the rd of 16 in Rome. Kerber will need to move well, extend rallies, and hope to get Naomi off rhythm with variety of spins, height, and pace. All together I’d look for Osaka to be too aggressive and if she’s serving well it will probably be the end to a great career for Kerber. 

Haddad Maia (BRA)  vs Gracheva (FRA) 

Haddad Maia, the left handed Brazilian, seems to travel with a circus. More often than not the Brazilians are always surrounding her court going absolutely crazy and she seems to thrive off of it. Playing aot long intense matches and usually winning them too. In 2023 at RG she had the crowd completely on her side, winning 4 straight matches in three sets, with a few 3rd set comebacks. However in this contest the 14 seed Haddad Maia is not a guarantee to have the crowd on her side. Those matches she didn’t face any French opponents, but Saturday morning that changes. Gracheva, playing for France but originally from Russia, hopes to have the crowd supporting her as being from the host nation. I would imagine she’ll have some support but not as somebody who’s played under France all their career like Garcia or Monfils will. However no matter the support, the ruckus environment should benefit BHM. And apart from that her game is better suited for the clay. Good lefty serve with a big heavy forehand, and not afraid to slice the backhand or mix in the dropper. Gracheva much prefers indoor hard as she’s a flat ball striker type of player. Haddad Maia loves 3 set matches so it wouldn’t surprise me if she makes this dramatic, but I do like her to get through this match and continue on to the 2nd rd.

Fernandez (CAN) vs Muchova (CZE)

Personally, my favorite matchup of the day. Muchova plays and that means if you want to watch blissful, silky, graceful tennis, watch Muchova. She plays unlike any other female for the most part. Using her backhand slice, unbelievable technique on both groundstrokes, and also mixing in quite a bit of serve and volley. She was up a break 4-3 in the 3rd of the 2023 RG final, playing beautiful tennis, and she hopes to find that form again here this week. Having dealt with injuries most of the year, she hasn’t been able to get much of a rhythm and match play, but the way she plays can always cause problems.

She’s going against 2021 US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez. After that final we all thought the next gen of Leylah and Radu had begun but neither have been able to reach those heights again. And if they never do, it’s still better than 99.9999% of people. But she would definitely prefer this match on a hard court, having a red clay record of 4-4 this year. Muchova on the other hand has only played 1 clay tournament this year, last week reaching the final of Palermo. If 100% healthy I’d be all in on Muchova, but the way her health’s been you just never know as Leylah been the more consistent player the past year. 3 sets here wouldn’t surprise me, but I do still expect Muchova to get through this. Using her slice, her aggressive serve and volley and big forehand, should keep Leylah off rhythm and the surface is a huge benefit for Karolina.

Iga Swiatek (POL) vs Begu (ROM)

This match isn’t even worth writing about. Sorry Begu, we are all rooting for you, because any upset to Iga opens the draw up for the tournament to actually be played, but nobody’s tuning in unless you’re up in the 3rd or up a set and break. Like the Alcaraz match, this is more to let you know Iga is playing on day 1 and the road to her first gold medal begins. 1ga being 1ga id expect her to take Begu to the bakery. At least one bagel or breadstick will be handed out tomorrow I would imagine. Swiatek moves unbelievable, and the quality of shots she hits from the corners is unreal. Just heavy ball after heavy ball, shrinking the court taking it early, she is the new right handed female Rafa. All respect to number 136th ranked Begu though. A tremendous accomplishment to play the Olympics and represent your country, but this is just too tough a task to ask of her right now. 

Americans in action

Tommy Paul (USA) vs Luciano Darderi (ITA)
Taylor Fritz (USA) vs Alexander Bublik (KAZ)
Danielle Collins (USA) vs  Laura Siegemund
Emma Navarro (USA) vs Julia Grabher (AUT)
Christopher Eubanks (USA) be Benjamin Hassan (LEB)
Gauff/Pegula (USA) vs Perez/Saville (AUS)
Marcos Giron (USA) vs Felix Auger Aliassime (CAN)

Stay tuned for more previews and predictions as the tournament moves on.