This is probably the biggest day of the tournament. For American fans, for tennis fans. These matches are unbelievable and there’s a ton of matches to look forward to. Unfortunately they’ll all be on at similar times and during other Olympic events so I’ll try to keep you covered. As the tournament rolls on, the big names and expected Gold medal contenders have all breezed through the draw. But the guys who are potentially competing for bronze, unless a major upset or two, are starting to have tough tests every match. For everybody one bad match and that could be it. Alcaraz, Coco, and Swiatek will be back and have more chances at medals, but how many of these other players can say the same?
Ram/Krajicek vs Alcaraz/Nadal (ESP)
When: 2nd match on Chatrier after 1 pm ET
The match we have all been waiting for is here. The match of the tournament throughout all draws. Whoever wins this should be walking away with a gold medal. Either a gold medal for the spanish goats, or one coming back to Indiana. These are clearly the two best teams and is going to be an awesome clash of styles. The two doubles specialists vs the two singles experts turned doubles professors. The two doubles number 1’s vs the two singles number 1’s. Raj/Kraj are going to try to keep points short, trying to finish everything within the first few shots. They want a good serve placement and the net player taking that first volley as many times as possible. And if that’s not happening, it is going to be tough, due to the uncanny ability the two goats have to steal points. They track down balls and win points they shouldn’t win and then all of a sudden it is three points later and everybody is still thinking about that one point. They are clearly the two better players from the baseline, the two better returners, the two better movers, and they also have world class volleys. But are they the better doubles players? Because that is what they’re playing tomorrow. And Raj and Kraj have that down to a science. I do worry if they go I formation and let Rafa and Alcaraz see that much open court, how that will go. Maybe do abbreviated i, but I am sure they are aware of this. Can they hold their serves and take a crack at a few returns to steal a break. Typically for Raj and Kraj they do not get broken much, so one break can do the job, but they are not playing against their typical doubles team here.
Prediction: 3 sets. Can’t go against Fia and can’t go against Raj
Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) vs Taylor Fritz (USA)
When: 7 am ET, Court 14
The matches are getting better each round in the men’s draw and this is one to certainly look out for. America’s number 1 ranked player, Taylor Fritz, in action vs Zo setti. Setti has been on a tear as of late, as I have already mentioned in the past. He has a lot more variety to his game compared to Claylor but sometimes he can fall in love with that. If this matchup is just him playing cat and mouse with Fritz, I think it’ll go Fritz way. But Musetti can rip also and for him He doesn’t want to give Fritz the same ball over and over, because his variety favors him. It’s going to be about finding that balance of how much does he want to slice n dice and how much does he want to be controlling the points. Fritz is going to favor his backhand to backhand rallies in this match and Musetti will try to use his slice, both to Fritz backhand, and down the line to change the pattern up. With his new Thiem-like backhand he can blast it almost inside in, down the line, and will try to use that also. But topspin backhand to backhand Fritz has him. Fritz also has him in the serve department, getting more free points. Musetti however, likes to use the kick in the ad side to set up a first ball to his forehand to get in a pattern he wants. Musetti is playing serious ball but Fritz game is bigger and if he is on and controlling the points I think he can steal the win. But the longer it goes, and the more shots Fritz has to hit, will he start to falter. Compared to his last opponent Draper, who gives you a rhythm hitting similar paced ball without a ton of variety, Musetti makes you feel a lot more uncomfortable, using the clay to his advantage. Musetti also a lot more comfortable moving on clay than both Taylor and Draper. It’s a coin flip but give the slight edge to Musetti based on recent form.
Prediction: 3 sets, Musetti?
Gauff/Pegula (USA) vs Muchova/Noskova (CZE), 2nd Round
When: Second match on Court 14
This is one of the more highly anticipated matches in the doubles draw. Muchova, who hasn’t played much doubles, has a game that would translate perfect to the doubles court. She serves and volleys naturally, hits big groundies from the back of the court, and has great volleys. That matched nicely with Noskova who has a bigger aggressive game, but not necessarily a star at the net. But she can do her work from the back of the court and Muchova take over the net and they could give Coco and Jess trouble. They beat the Russian team Vesnina/Alexandrova first round in 3 sets. As far as the American team goes, we know what Coco and Pegula are capable of. They reached the US Open final a few years back and Coco has been ranked number 1 in the world, and also won the RG title this year with Siniakova. Every tournament they’ve been in they’ve consistently been a threat to win it all, and most of the time have gone deep in the draw. They both have improved their net game tremendously through playing more doubles together and it has translated to their singles game. They also genuinely have a good time out there, you can tell laughing and smiling a lot. Seems like a good older and younger sister dynamic as Pegula is 10 years older than Coco. That’s a good age for siblings too. They look to play traditional doubles typically and win a lot of points at the net, particularly off Coco’s serve. The American team is definitely the favorite in this matchup but don’t count out the Czech team. This is their first time playing together so nobody really knows what they’re capable of. With Muchova’s gorgeous game, I wouldn’t underestimate her, but think the American’s experience together should ultimately help them get over the finish line.
Prediction: Gauff and Pegula.
Tommy Paul (USA) vs Corentin Moutet (FRA)
When: 6 am ET, Court Suzanne Lenglen
The only way Moutet can win this match is if he mentally cracks TP and the crowd gets under his skin. Tennis wise also, the only thing Moutet can do is try to disrupt TP. TP does everything better than Moutet on the court and should work his way through this one. This should be TP’s match, and if he got better luck in placement of the draw, aka not playing Novak or Alcaraz before the semi’s, he’d be my favorite for Bronze. Now he can beat Alcaraz, has in the past, and always plays great matches vs him. Was just up a set and break vs Fia at Wimbledon. But he has to get past Moutet first, and he will. TP with USA on his back has him game sliders all the way up. Expect some Moutet underhand serves here also. 4.5+ ?
Prediction: Tommy Paul (USA).
Danielle Collins (USA) vs Iga Swiatek (POL)
When: Third match on Court Suzanne Lenglen
Interestingly enough Collins has the game to trouble Swiatek. Swiatek doesn’t like big hitters who can hit her off the court, that seems to be her kryptonite. Sabalenka, Rybakina, etc. It doesn’t mean that game always beats her, but that is the type of game that stands a chance. Their head to head wouldn’t say that though, with Swiatek leading 6-1 and in sets 11-4 (Danielle def 1 match). But when you look closer, one of those matches Danielle was up a double break in the third at this years AO, but Swiatek won the last 5 games of the match to come back and win. The other time they went three sets, was also at AO. And that makes sense given Swiatek doesn’t like a faster court, and Collins does. The bad news for Collins is she still lost both of those matches and now this is on clay, which you would think would favor her even less. Osaka,a similar big hitting big serving game style, was deemed a hard court specialist and had match point against Iga on the same court last year. So it can be done beating her, but it just takes a top level of play for a full two or three sets. A lot can achieve that level for a bit but maintaining it is another thing. I will certainly be rooting for Dan-yell and I hope she has the match of her life, but the queen of clay in her own palace, I don’t see her being dethroned
Prediction: Swiatek in 3 sets.
Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) vs Roman Safiulin (RUS)
When: Second match on Court Suzanne Lenglen
Safiulin getting to the third round is a really good result for him. Clay is probably Safiulins second favorite surface, behind hard courts. He has two wins over two good clay courts, Tabilo and Etcheverry, and has to be feeling pretty good about his level of play in this matchup. He has played on clay a decent amount so he feels comfortable moving on it, unlike grass, but really it doesn’t favor his game quite as much as grass or hard court does. Roman has a big game, similar to Rublev, ripping every ball with fast racquet head speed on every shot. It is tough to get a rhythm against him because he usually is playing shorter points. Alcaraz likes to get a rhythm where he feels like he can do anything with the ball, like it’s the size of a watermelon. When Roman is on he is a very dangerous opponent. For a while growing up, he was supposed to be the best out of his Russian generation; Rublev, Medvedev, and Khachanov. I remember seeing Roman in Lexington 2021, and he was a workhorse back then, on court all day, hitting two to three times per day. You could tell he was a level above those challenger guys at the time, both his game and professionally, but that’s how it will probably feel for him tomorrow.
Alcaraz is another level from Etcheverry and Tabilo. Carlos comes into this match not really facing any tough tests yet. He played a tiebreak 2nd set vs Griekspoor 2nd round, but that breaker was cruise control for the Spaniard along with everything else the past few months for the Spaniard. Alcaraz or “Fia” as I like to call him, has shown signs of mortality throughout his career, including a loss in Rome 2023 to Fabian Marozsan when he was ranked outside the top 100. Or like the time he lost in Paris Indoor, to that non seeded player… Roman Safiulin. But Alcaraz seems to show up at his top level in big tournaments. As he says, “no time to be tired” and “CCC” standing for “Cabeza, Corazon, Cajones”, and he’ll be instilling those mottos throughout the tournament. Fia is trying to become the youngest gold medal winner ever in men’s singles, and this should just be another match on his way to do that. For Safiulin to knock off the reigning RG and Wimby champ, he’s going to need to hope that the leg injury Fia got checked out in his last match is worse than we think, and will affect Fia, even the slightest bit. Carlos is playing at a historic level and I don’t think Roman Safiulin will be enough to stop that.
Prediction: Alcaraz in straight sets.
Casper Ruud (NOR) vs Francisco Cerundolo (ARG)
When:
This match should feature a lot of long rallies and if they go the distance this could be a Navone/Nadal type 4 hour 3 set match. The type of matches I like and the type of tennis that I can relate to. Neither of these guys are winning points off their serve but more setting the point up. They’re not just overpowering players off the court but gotta work for their points. Ruud so far this tournament has clearly been trying to play more aggressive than he has in the past on clay particularly with his forehand, getting ready for the hard court swing. But he’s been working on that since the end of 2022. He has mentioned in UTS interviews that he knows he has no real weapon and he sees everybody else able to win points on their own, and has to adapt some of that to his own game. And he’s not wrong; particularly on hard courts. But in a big match on clay I think we’re gonna see the Casper Ruud we are used to. Cerundolo plays a similar game style, using his forehand to be aggressive but both of them are plenty comfortable playing long rallies from the baseline. Cerundolo has the edge on the backhand side and will be trying to use his backie DTL, and inside out fories to set up opportunities to attack Casper’s backhand Both players are going to be at each others throats in the others service games, and should be plenty of back and forth momentum in this match. Both of these guys personify clay courts and have had most of their success on clay. The outlier for Casper is his US Open final run which is crazy impressive but most of his success is on clay. I mean he tanks the grass court season. Cerundolo is coming into this match on a 6 match win streak and Casper hasn’t had as pretty of matches as he’s wanted so far. But he found his game when he needed and as Lace says, extra reps. He won’t be working on things in this match and if he does, he’s going to be packing his bags for North America.
Prediction: Ruud in 3 sets.
Americans in action:
Tommy Paul (USA) vs Corentin Moutet (FRA)
Taylor Fritz (USA) vs Lorenzo Musetti (ITA)
Ram/Krajicek (USA) vs Alcaraz/Nadal (ESP)
Danielle Collins (USA) vs 1ga Swiatek (POL)
Gauff/Pegula (USA) vs Muchova/Noskova (CZE)
Fritz/Paul (USA) vs Haase/Roger (NED)
